As the new season kicks off, fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don highlights some pitchers who might be overvalued based on their current draft prices. Here's who to avoid:
Athletics: Luis Severino, SP
Moving from Citi Field to a cozier park in Sacramento, Severino faces tougher conditions with a change of scenery. Despite strong home stats last season, his away performance was shaky, which could spell trouble in the warmer climates this year.
Baltimore Orioles: Zach Eflin, SP
Eflin's stellar Tropicana performance won't follow him to Baltimore. With changes in Oriole Park's dimensions and decreased strikeout potential, his season could head south quickly.
Boston Red Sox: Liam Hendriks, RP
Struggling in spring and competing for the closer role, Hendriks seems overshadowed by emerging talents like Justin Slaten and Garrett Whitlock. His past prime form appears far-fetched to return.
Cincinnati Reds: Alexis Díaz, RP
Pitched in one of the league's toughest parks last year. Díaz's decreasing strikeouts and increasing risk metrics suggest regression. The Reds have backup options in Taylor Rogers and Scott Barlow.
Detroit Tigers: Jason Foley, RP
Although Foley notched 28 saves, his strikeout numbers lag behind the expectations for a closer. With fierce competition from Tommy Kahnle, Foley’s tenure in the role may be short-lived.
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Estévez, RP
While Estévez found success away from Coors, his stats indicate regression potential in batter-friendly Kauffman Stadium. With Lucas Erceg waiting in the wings, Estévez's position isn't secure.
Miami Marlins: Calvin Faucher, RP
Despite a spike in his strikeout rate, Faucher's ERA and WHIP projections leave much to be desired. Miami's crowded bullpen means his closing role is anything but guaranteed.
New York Yankees: Max Fried, SP
Fried transitions to Yankee Stadium with mixed expectations. The park's homer-friendly conditions mark a stark contrast from the strikeout-friendly environment in Atlanta.
Philadelphia Phillies: Cristopher Sánchez, SP
Sánchez's rising ADP may not be justified given his lukewarm strikeout stats. Though effective, he's overshadowed by other names in NFBC and Yahoo league drafts.
San Diego Padres: Robert Suárez, RP
As Suárez steps into the closer position, his dropping strikeout stats raise red flags. With other strong arms in the Padres’ bullpen, his save tally might see a hit this season.
St. Louis Cardinals: Ryan Helsley, RP
Despite a remarkable 2024, repeat success could be elusive for Helsley amid the Cardinals' challenging outlook. A dip in wins and save opportunities makes him less reliable.
Tampa Bay Rays: Pete Fairbanks, RP
With declining strikeouts and velocity, and frequent injuries limiting appearances, Fairbanks must contend with a competitive bullpen. Look for him to be bypassed by more consistent arms.
